Michigan was a political paradise and a significant victory for Republicans in 2016. With the state’s support, Donald Trump won the presidency, securing a trifecta of control for Republicans in state government. They held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature, as well as the state attorney general and secretary of state positions. With such dominance, the party was poised to enact a conservative agenda on both social and fiscal issues.
The political landscape in Michigan has shifted dramatically since 2017. Despite previous Republican control, the state party is now in a state of division and struggle. Meanwhile, Democrats have seized the trifecta and have been implementing significant changes at a stunning pace. In just the past five weeks, Governor Gretchen Whitmer has signed into law measures that repeal a 1931 abortion ban, increase regulations around gun safety, overturn a GOP-backed “right to work” law, make union organizing more accessible, establish a “prevailing wage” standard for all state projects, and expand state civil rights protections to prohibit discrimination based on gender identity or expression.
Governor Whitmer is expected to sign a “red flag” law soon, aimed at preventing individuals who pose a threat to themselves or others from obtaining firearms, even if they haven’t committed a crime.
“The Democrats are really gaining momentum,” says Bill Ballenger, a former GOP Michigan state legislator and current author of political newsletter The Ballenger Report. Meanwhile, he notes that “Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot by making outlandish statements on policy issues” that alienate independent voters, a crucial demographic in swing elections.
“The Democrats are moving more aggressively than anticipated, wasting no time in pushing through their agenda since gaining the majority,” says Jason Roe, former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party. “It’s been a whirlwind, and everyone is feeling it.”
Dramatic political developments are occurring at a more moderate level in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, two states in the region that narrowly supported Trump in 2016, leading some to believe that the Democrats’ “blue wall” was deteriorating. These three states have large rural areas where the GOP traditionally dominates and an older-than-average population.
However, as in Michigan, Democrats have been making a comeback since their defeat in 2016. In Pennsylvania, Democrats flipped control of the state House of Representatives, securing the majority for the first time in 12 years. This prevented the likely confirmation of a constitutional amendment to ban or significantly restrict abortion that could not be vetoed by the governor. Last year, Keystone Staters elected a Democrat as governor and sent John Fetterman to Washington by flipping a U.S. Senate seat.
In Wisconsin, although Republicans still hold supermajorities in the state legislature, Democrats managed to reelect Tony Evers as governor in 2022. More importantly, Democrats flipped control of the state Supreme Court to a liberal majority, electing Janet Protasiewicz to the high court this month. Her election means that the GOP’s efforts to ban abortion and gerrymander electoral maps will be met with a more critical eye by the court.
“Since 2016, the GOP has been a wasteland,” says Christopher Borick, a political science professor and the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion in Allentown, Pennsylvania. “It’s difficult to evaluate the scorecard since 2016 and arrive at anything other than the word ‘disaster’ for Republicans in the state.”
The 2024 presidential campaign season is shaping up to be a challenge for Republicans, as even once-solidly GOP states like Arizona and Georgia are trending towards the Democrats. Winning the battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could be a game-changer for the GOP nominee.
On the plus side for Republicans, President Joe Biden is not popular in any of these three states, which theoretically gives the Republican presidential candidate an opening to win.
Republicans are pinning their hopes on a potential voter backlash against the Democrats for their perceived rush to push through policy changes. However, both Republican and Democratic insiders recognize that the GOP is still struggling to move on from Donald Trump, whose polarizing rhetoric and policies may have helped ensure narrow victories for Joe Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the 2020 presidential election.
The Michigan GOP, in particular, is currently embroiled in a civil war between Trump loyalists and more traditional conservatives. Pollsters say that Republican hardline stances on abortion and issues like book-banning and drag queens are turning off suburban voters and energizing Democratic and female voters. Meanwhile, a decade of gerrymandering in Michigan has left the state party out of touch with independent voters.
Democrats are working hard to avoid the mistakes of the past and are engaging in year-round organizing and full-time voter outreach in all 83 counties of Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Democrats are holding onto their narrow majority in the state House by a thread, but they are determined to keep control by focusing on special elections and ensuring every Republican has a Democratic opponent.
Keeping control means finding candidates suited for the diverse districts in Pennsylvania, says Krueger, who won her district (which she flipped) by 700 votes in 2012 and won her first reelection by just 597 votes.
“The fundamentals are the same no matter what state you’re in. You need to run candidates that reflect the districts that they serve,” Krueger says.
Republicans, meanwhile, say they need to get unified to run competent campaigns against Democrats the GOP believes have gone too far to the left for their battleground state constituencies.
“On paper, they’ve given us a grocery list of things we can go after them on,” Roe says. It remains to be seen if we have the candidate quality and resources we need to make them suffer for it.”
For now, it’s the GOP that is suffering.
